Small Business Optimism in May 2020

There is no question that Small Business was the hardest hit in the “Corona-Cession” and they remain the hiring engine of North American economies. In May, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index bounced back from a seven-year low, springing 3.5 points to 94.4. This was its biggest monthly gain since November 2011.

Our partners at NBIF Economics who track Small Business Optimism suggests that the hope of seeing a post-pandemic rebound remains alive among small businesses.

Learn more about the sentiment of U.S. Small Business Owners from NBIF Economics here.

Job Statistics

Big buzz around U.S. job statistics as Canada’s Bank Rate stayed the same for the first week in June 2018. The establishment survey showed rising at 233,000 jobs in May. The private sector added 218,000 jobs in the month, buoyed by cyclical sectors like construction and manufacturing.

The outlook for Canada’s job rate also looks positive according to our partners at NBF.

Enjoy the Full economic outlook from National Bank Financial (NBF) Economics group.

Economic Monitor: Canadian CPI and Jobs

Times of transition can be confusing for households and businesses as the Canadian economy continues to provide good news while the longer-term realities are likely moving towards a more mature outcome. Our colleagues at the Economics group at National Bank Financial are not sounding any loud alarm bells. It is important to refresh the reality of the economic cycles — they go up and down. It is a reminder that stock markets tend to lead in advance of these transitions. The corrosive focus of inflation is an essential task and measure of the Bank of Canada’s success. How are Canadians doing?

Core inflation running close to BoC target

The good news is that the Bank of Canada is focused and managing well to its inflation target — meaning keeping it under a watchful eye.

Economic Monitor Nov 2017 Inflation outook

Canadian Jobs Numbers

Canadian employment numbers on October 2017 excessed expectations and rose 35K in October according to the Labour Force Survey. That was well above consensus which was expecting an increase of 15K. Despite this gain, the unemployment rate rose one tick to 6.3% as the participation rate rose one tick to 65.7%. Job gains in October were mostly from the private sector (+39K) while public sector jobs were down (-5K). This is another good signal of broad economic strength.

 

Enjoy the detailed reports from our National Bank Financial Partners below:

Inflation Outlook for Canada Fall 2017

Jobs Outlook for Canada Fall 2017