Global financial markets are attempting to determine the probability and the implications of the rhetoric and status of negotiations of various trade agreements. Most recently the implications of a trade war with tariffs has contributed to a 4% decline in valuations. At this point, while the protectionist probabilities increase the reality of increased costs globally is already being forecasted as the U.S. stock markets have experience some of their largest daily point drops in its history. Regardless of the outcome, increased volatility is assured. Our partners at the National Bank Financial (NBF) Economics offer a detailed exploration of the increased world protectionism for Canadian industries.
Enjoy the special report from our partners at National Bank Financial on Canadian exposure to U.S. protectionism: Click here.
Our partners at National Bank Financial Economics has reflected on the year that was in 2017 from a global perspective as economists are want to do in order to set the stage for the balance of 2018. The economic vital signs of 2017 are robust and record setting. It’s becoming clearer why world GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth accelerated sharply last year. Latest data from the CPB showed trade volumes not only reaching a new record but also growing in 2017 at 4.5%, the fastest pace since 2011.
What are Canada’s Economic Vital Signs for 2018?
National Bank Financial Economics offers a cautiously optimistic outlook for Canada as a result of U.S. policies and global growth. Barring the implementation of protectionist policies stateside, Canadian exporters should enjoy positive spillovers from the recently announced ramp up in U.S. fiscal stimulus. Domestic demand will also find support as business investment continues to recover, consumers enjoy higher incomes courtesy of housing wealth effects and a strong labour market,
Private sector investment spending is actually projected to rise 2% this year, the largest increase since 2014. Higher investment is planned in manufacturing, retailing, and real estate among others.
National Bank Financial Economics explores the economic vital signs for Canada in 2018.
Canadian employment rose 15,000 in February 2018 according to the Labour Force survey, not far from consensus expectations. With the participation rate unchanged at 65.5%. The February 2018 employment report was a mix of good and less good news. While the overall job gains are welcome, the tilt towards part-timers and the public sector wasn’t particularly encouraging.
The outlook for employment remains positive with corporations reporting strong profits and labour shortages, although the pace of job growth is likely to be restrained until at least a revamped NAFTA is signed by policymakers.